Coppa Italia (Italy) · Wed, Dec 3 · 14:00 · Atalanta vs Genoa
Likeliest: Genoa win · 39%
We make it 56% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 49%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atalanta38%63%−25
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+1
OursMarket
Genoa39%14%+25
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 49% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 86% | −25 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 37% | +25 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 81% | −32 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atalanta
WinLossLossWinWin
- Nov 30 · v Fiorentina (H)2-0
- Nov 26 · at Eintracht Frankfurt (A)3-0
- Nov 22 · at Napoli (A)1-3
- Nov 9 · v Sassuolo (H)0-3
- Nov 5 · at Olympique Marseille (A)1-0
Genoa
LossWinDrawDrawWin
- Nov 29 · v Hellas Verona (H)2-1
- Nov 22 · at Cagliari (A)3-3
- Nov 9 · v Fiorentina (H)2-2
- Nov 3 · at Sassuolo (A)2-1
- Oct 29 · v Cremonese (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Atalanta | Genoa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-5-2 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.