Serie A (Italy) · Sat, May 2 · 18:45 · Atalanta vs Genoa
Likeliest: Atalanta win · 49%
A 26% away win. The market says 16%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atalanta49%61%−12
OursMarket
Draw25%23%+2
OursMarket
Genoa26%16%+10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 53% | −9 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 84% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 39% | +12 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 77% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 79% | −14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atalanta
WinLossDrawDrawLoss
- Apr 27 · at Cagliari (A)2-3
- Apr 22 · v Lazio (H)1-1
- Apr 18 · at Roma (A)1-1
- Apr 11 · v Juventus (H)0-1
- Apr 6 · at Lecce (A)3-0
Genoa
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Apr 26 · v Como (H)0-2
- Apr 19 · at Pisa (A)2-1
- Apr 12 · v Sassuolo (H)2-1
- Apr 6 · at Juventus (A)0-2
- Mar 20 · v Udinese (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Atalanta | Genoa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.