Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Aug 20 · 18:30 · Atalanta vs Hapoel Tel Aviv
Likeliest: Atalanta win · 55%
We make it 51% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 34%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atalanta55%81%−26
OursMarket
Draw23%12%+10
OursMarket
Hapoel Tel Aviv22%7%+15
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 66% | −17 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 44% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 93% | −15 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 19% | +26 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 88% | −10 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 92% | −21 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atalanta
LossDrawWinLossDraw
- May 22 · at Fiorentina (A)1-1
- May 17 · v Bologna (H)0-1
- May 10 · at AC Milan (A)3-2
- May 2 · v Genoa (H)0-0
- Apr 27 · at Cagliari (A)2-3
Hapoel Tel Aviv
DrawWinDrawWinLoss
- Aug 12 · at GKS Katowice (A)1-2
- Aug 6 · v GKS Katowice (H)2-0
- Jul 30 · at Ludogorets (A)2-2
- Jul 23 · v Ludogorets (H)2-0
- May 23 · at Beitar Jerusalem (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Atalanta | Hapoel Tel Aviv |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.