Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Mar 22 · 14:00 · Atalanta vs Hellas Verona
Likeliest: Atalanta win · 56%
We make it 59% for both teams to score. The market says 44%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atalanta56%68%−12
OursMarket
Draw22%20%+2
OursMarket
Hellas Verona22%11%+10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 51% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 44% | +15 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 89% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 32% | +12 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 80% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 86% | −13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atalanta
DrawDrawLossDrawLoss
- Mar 18 · at FC Bayern München (A)1-4
- Mar 14 · at Inter (A)1-1
- Mar 10 · v FC Bayern München (H)1-6
- Mar 7 · v Udinese (H)2-2
- Mar 4 · at Lazio (A)2-2
Hellas Verona
LossLossLossWinLoss
- Mar 15 · v Genoa (H)0-2
- Mar 8 · at Bologna (A)2-1
- Feb 28 · v Napoli (H)1-2
- Feb 20 · at Sassuolo (A)0-3
- Feb 15 · at Parma (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Atalanta | Hellas Verona |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 1-2-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.