Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Dec 28 · 19:45 · Atalanta vs Inter
Likeliest: Atalanta win · 43%
A 43% home win. The market says 27%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atalanta43%27%+16
OursMarket
Draw26%27%−1
OursMarket
Inter31%46%−15
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 54% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 54% | +15 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 73% | −16 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 73% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 37% | +21 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atalanta
WinLossWinWinWin
- Dec 21 · at Genoa (A)1-0
- Dec 13 · v Cagliari (H)2-1
- Dec 9 · v Chelsea (H)2-1
- Dec 6 · at Hellas Verona (A)1-3
- Dec 3 · v Genoa (H)4-0
Inter
WinWinWinLossWin
- Dec 14 · at Genoa (A)2-1
- Dec 9 · v Liverpool (H)0-1
- Dec 6 · v Como (H)4-0
- Dec 3 · v Venezia (H)5-1
- Nov 30 · at Pisa (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Atalanta | Inter |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-0-3 | 7-0-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 7-0-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.