Coppa Italia (Italy) · Thu, Feb 5 · 20:00 · Atalanta vs Juventus
Likeliest: Atalanta win · 45%
A 45% home win. The market says 34%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atalanta45%34%+11
OursMarket
Draw25%29%−4
OursMarket
Juventus30%36%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 49% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 55% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 64% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 66% | −11 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 71% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 49% | +12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atalanta
DrawLossWinLossDraw
- Feb 1 · at Como (A)0-0
- Jan 28 · at Union Saint-Gilloise (A)0-1
- Jan 25 · v Parma (H)4-0
- Jan 21 · v Athletic Club (H)2-3
- Jan 16 · at Pisa (A)1-1
Juventus
LossWinWinDrawWin
- Feb 1 · at Parma (A)4-1
- Jan 28 · at Monaco (A)0-0
- Jan 25 · v Napoli (H)3-0
- Jan 21 · v Benfica (H)2-0
- Jan 17 · at Cagliari (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Atalanta | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-0-3 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.