Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Apr 11 · 18:45 · Atalanta vs Juventus
Likeliest: Atalanta win · 43%
A 43% home win. The market says 31%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atalanta43%31%+12
OursMarket
Draw26%28%−2
OursMarket
Juventus32%42%−10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 54% | −4 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 58% | −8 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 58% | +10 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 69% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 72% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 42% | +15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atalanta
LossDrawLossWinWin
- Apr 6 · at Lecce (A)3-0
- Mar 22 · v Hellas Verona (H)1-0
- Mar 18 · at FC Bayern München (A)1-4
- Mar 14 · at Inter (A)1-1
- Mar 10 · v FC Bayern München (H)1-6
Juventus
DrawWinWinDrawWin
- Apr 6 · v Genoa (H)2-0
- Mar 21 · v Sassuolo (H)1-1
- Mar 14 · at Udinese (A)1-0
- Mar 7 · v Pisa (H)4-0
- Mar 1 · at Roma (A)3-3
| Last 10 games | Atalanta | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.