Coppa Italia (Italy) · Wed, Apr 22 · 19:00 · Atalanta vs Lazio
Likeliest: Atalanta win · 43%
We make it 59% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 51%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atalanta43%52%−9
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Lazio28%21%+7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 49% | −7 |
| Both teams score | 43% | 52% | −9 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 79% | −7 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 48% | +9 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 71% | −10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atalanta
LossWinWinLossDraw
- Apr 18 · at Roma (A)1-1
- Apr 11 · v Juventus (H)0-1
- Apr 6 · at Lecce (A)3-0
- Mar 22 · v Hellas Verona (H)1-0
- Mar 18 · at FC Bayern München (A)1-4
Lazio
WinWinDrawLossWin
- Apr 18 · at Napoli (A)2-0
- Apr 13 · at Fiorentina (A)0-1
- Apr 4 · v Parma (H)1-1
- Mar 22 · at Bologna (A)2-0
- Mar 15 · v AC Milan (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Atalanta | Lazio |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 3-5-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.