Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Feb 22 · 14:00 · Atalanta vs Napoli
Likeliest: Atalanta win · 51%
We make it 58% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 44%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atalanta51%37%+14
OursMarket
Draw24%31%−7
OursMarket
Napoli26%32%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 44% | +14 |
| Both teams score | 61% | 51% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 68% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 63% | −14 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 69% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 54% | +12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atalanta
DrawWinWinWinLoss
- Feb 17 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)0-2
- Feb 14 · at Lazio (A)2-0
- Feb 9 · v Cremonese (H)2-1
- Feb 5 · v Juventus (H)3-0
- Feb 1 · at Como (A)0-0
Napoli
LossWinWinDrawDraw
- Feb 15 · v Roma (H)2-2
- Feb 10 · v Como (H)1-1
- Feb 7 · at Genoa (A)3-2
- Jan 31 · v Fiorentina (H)2-1
- Jan 28 · v Chelsea (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | Atalanta | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-0-2 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.