Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 15 · 19:00 · Atalanta vs Pafos FC
Likeliest: Atalanta win · 67%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 67% for the home win. The market says 64%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atalanta67%64%+2
OursMarket
Draw21%21%0
OursMarket
Pafos FC12%14%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 60% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 54% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 88% | 86% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 34% | 36% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 79% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 84% | 82% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atalanta
WinLossLossLossWin
- Oct 12 · v Venezia (H)3-1
- Sep 20 · at Juventus (A)0-2
- Sep 12 · v Cagliari (H)1-2
- Sep 5 · at Roma (A)1-2
- Aug 31 · v Bologna (H)1-0
Pafos FC
WinDrawWinLossWin
- Oct 11 · at Anorthosis Famagusta (A)3-1
- Sep 18 · v AEL Limassol (H)0-2
- Sep 13 · at AEK Larnaca (A)1-0
- Sep 7 · v Olympiakos Nicosia (H)0-0
- Aug 30 · at Karmiotissa Polemidion (A)3-0
| Last 10 games | Atalanta | Pafos FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 4-5-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.