Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Jan 3 · 19:45 · Atalanta vs Roma
Likeliest: Atalanta win · 51%
We make it 57% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 43%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atalanta51%41%+10
OursMarket
Draw26%31%−5
OursMarket
Roma24%29%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | +14 |
| Both teams score | 60% | 50% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 71% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 59% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 69% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 59% | +9 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atalanta
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Dec 28 · v Inter (H)0-1
- Dec 21 · at Genoa (A)1-0
- Dec 13 · v Cagliari (H)2-1
- Dec 9 · v Chelsea (H)2-1
- Dec 6 · at Hellas Verona (A)1-3
Roma
LossWinWinLossWin
- Dec 29 · v Genoa (H)3-1
- Dec 20 · at Juventus (A)1-2
- Dec 15 · v Como (H)1-0
- Dec 11 · at Celtic (A)3-0
- Dec 7 · at Cagliari (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Atalanta | Roma |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-4 | 7-0-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 7-0-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.