Serie A (Italy) · Sun, Aug 23 · 18:45 · Atalanta vs Sassuolo
Likeliest: Atalanta win · 51%
A 25% away win. The market says 15%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atalanta51%62%−12
OursMarket
Draw24%22%+2
OursMarket
Sassuolo25%15%+10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 57% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 53% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 85% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 38% | +12 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 78% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 80% | −13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atalanta
DrawWinLossDrawDraw
- Aug 20 · v Hapoel Tel Aviv (H)0-0
- May 22 · at Fiorentina (A)1-1
- May 17 · v Bologna (H)0-1
- May 10 · at AC Milan (A)3-2
- May 2 · v Genoa (H)0-0
Sassuolo
WinLossLossLossWin
- Aug 17 · v Cesena (H)3-0
- May 24 · at Parma (A)0-1
- May 17 · v Lecce (H)2-3
- May 8 · at Torino (A)1-2
- May 3 · v AC Milan (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Atalanta | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.