Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Jan 10 · 19:45 · Atalanta vs Torino
Likeliest: Atalanta win · 56%
We make it 54% for both teams to score. The market says 48%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atalanta56%60%−3
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Torino18%16%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 48% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 84% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 40% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 79% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atalanta
WinWinLossWinWin
- Jan 7 · at Bologna (A)2-0
- Jan 3 · v Roma (H)1-0
- Dec 28 · v Inter (H)0-1
- Dec 21 · at Genoa (A)1-0
- Dec 13 · v Cagliari (H)2-1
Torino
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Jan 7 · v Udinese (H)1-2
- Jan 4 · at Hellas Verona (A)3-0
- Dec 27 · v Cagliari (H)1-2
- Dec 21 · at Sassuolo (A)1-0
- Dec 13 · v Cremonese (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Atalanta | Torino |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-0-2 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.