Serie A (Italy) · Sat, Mar 7 · 17:00 · Atalanta vs Udinese
Likeliest: Atalanta win · 61%
We make it 59% for both teams to score. The market says 50%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atalanta61%58%+2
OursMarket
Draw20%24%−5
OursMarket
Udinese20%17%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 50% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 50% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 83% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 39% | 42% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 76% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 77% | −2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atalanta
LossWinWinLossDraw
- Mar 4 · at Lazio (A)2-2
- Mar 1 · at Sassuolo (A)1-2
- Feb 25 · v Borussia Dortmund (H)4-1
- Feb 22 · v Napoli (H)2-1
- Feb 17 · at Borussia Dortmund (A)0-2
Udinese
WinLossLossLossWin
- Mar 2 · v Fiorentina (H)3-0
- Feb 23 · at Bologna (A)0-1
- Feb 15 · v Sassuolo (H)1-2
- Feb 8 · at Lecce (A)1-2
- Feb 2 · v Roma (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Atalanta | Udinese |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 8-0-2 | 3-0-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.