Serie A (Italy) · Mon, Oct 12 · 16:30 · Atalanta vs Venezia
Likeliest: Atalanta win · 62%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 62% for the home win. The market says 60%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atalanta62%60%+1
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Venezia16%17%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 83% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 40% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 78% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atalanta
WinWinLossLossLoss
- Sep 20 · at Juventus (A)0-2
- Sep 12 · v Cagliari (H)1-2
- Sep 5 · at Roma (A)1-2
- Aug 31 · v Bologna (H)1-0
- Aug 27 · at Hapoel Tel Aviv (A)1-0
Venezia
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Sep 19 · v Lazio (H)0-2
- Sep 11 · v Fiorentina (H)2-4
- Sep 6 · at Frosinone (A)2-3
- Sep 2 · at Udinese (A)1-2
- Aug 28 · at AC Milan (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Atalanta | Venezia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 2-5-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.