La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Dec 6 · 20:00 · Athletic Club vs Atlético Madrid
Likeliest: Athletic Club win · 45%
We make it 62% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 44%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Athletic Club45%31%+14
OursMarket
Draw25%30%−5
OursMarket
Atlético Madrid30%39%−9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 44% | +18 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 61% | +9 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 69% | −14 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 70% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 44% | +16 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Athletic Club
LossWinDrawWinLoss
- Dec 3 · v Real Madrid (H)0-3
- Nov 29 · at Levante (A)2-0
- Nov 25 · at Slavia Praha (A)0-0
- Nov 23 · v Paysandu (H)2-1
- Nov 22 · at FC Barcelona (A)0-4
Atlético Madrid
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Dec 2 · at FC Barcelona (A)1-3
- Nov 29 · v Real Oviedo (H)2-0
- Nov 26 · v Inter (H)2-1
- Nov 23 · at Getafe (A)1-0
- Nov 8 · v Levante (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Athletic Club | Atlético Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 8-0-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.