La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Sep 5 · 14:15 · Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid
Likeliest: Atletico Madrid win · 54%
A 54% away win. The market says 40%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Athletic Club26%32%−6
OursMarket
Draw20%28%−8
OursMarket
Atletico Madrid54%40%+14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 50% | +5 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 46% | 60% | −14 |
| Double chance X2 | 74% | 68% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 72% | +8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 32% | 44% | −12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Athletic Club
LossLossLossWinWin
- Sep 4 · v Vila Nova FC (H)5-0
- Aug 30 · at Celta Vigo (A)2-0
- Aug 28 · at Náutico (A)1-2
- Aug 27 · at Barcelona (A)0-2
- Aug 24 · v Novorizontino (H)1-4
Atletico Madrid
LossLossWinDrawWin
- Aug 29 · at Sevilla (A)3-1
- Aug 23 · v Villarreal (H)2-2
- Aug 19 · v Málaga (H)2-0
- May 24 · at Villarreal (A)1-5
- May 24 · at Villarreal (A)1-5
| Last 10 games | Athletic Club | Atletico Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 4-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.