Serie B (Brazil) · Sat, Sep 19 · 21:30 · Athletic Club vs Botafogo-SP
Likeliest: Athletic Club win · 40%
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Athletic Club40%42%−2
OursMarket
Draw33%31%+2
OursMarket
Botafogo-SP27%27%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 37% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 45% | 42% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 73% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 67% | 69% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 61% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Athletic Club
WinLossDrawWinDraw
- Sep 19 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)0-0
- Sep 13 · at Juventude (A)2-0
- Sep 12 · v Elche (H)1-1
- Sep 8 · at Cuiabá (A)0-3
- Sep 5 · v Atletico Madrid (H)3-0
Botafogo-SP
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Sep 14 · v Goiás (H)1-3
- Sep 9 · v Novorizontino (H)1-3
- Sep 3 · at Náutico (A)0-1
- Aug 29 · v Cuiabá (H)1-2
- Aug 25 · at Atlético Goianiense (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Athletic Club | Botafogo-SP |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.