La Liga (Spain) · Sun, May 17 · 17:00 · Athletic Club vs Celta de Vigo
Likeliest: Celta de Vigo win · 38%
We make it 59% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 45%.
14 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Athletic Club38%43%−5
OursMarket
Draw24%30%−6
OursMarket
Celta de Vigo38%27%+11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 45% | +14 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 51% | +11 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 73% | −11 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 57% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 70% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 61% | −11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Athletic Club
DrawDrawLossLossLoss
- May 13 · at Espanyol (A)0-2
- May 12 · at Internacional (A)2-3
- May 10 · v Valencia (H)0-1
- May 9 · v Cuiabá (H)0-0
- May 4 · at Vila Nova (A)1-1
Celta de Vigo
LossLossWinWinLoss
- May 12 · v Levante (H)2-3
- May 9 · at Atlético Madrid (A)1-0
- May 3 · v Elche (H)3-1
- Apr 26 · at Villarreal (A)1-2
- Apr 22 · at FC Barcelona (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Athletic Club | Celta de Vigo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 3-0-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.