La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Sep 19 · 14:15 · Athletic Club vs Deportivo Alavés
Likeliest: Athletic Club win · 59%
A tight one: we make it 59% for the home win. The market says 58%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Athletic Club59%58%+1
OursMarket
Draw25%24%0
OursMarket
Deportivo Alavés16%17%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 50% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 83% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 42% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 77% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Athletic Club
WinWinLossDrawWin
- Sep 13 · at Juventude (A)2-0
- Sep 12 · v Elche (H)1-1
- Sep 8 · at Cuiabá (A)0-3
- Sep 5 · v Atletico Madrid (H)3-0
- Sep 4 · v Vila Nova FC (H)5-0
Deportivo Alavés
DrawWinWinLossLoss
- Sep 15 · v Valencia (H)0-1
- Sep 12 · at Racing de Santander (A)1-2
- Sep 6 · v Osasuna (H)5-2
- Aug 28 · v Villarreal (H)1-0
- Aug 20 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Athletic Club | Deportivo Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Athletic Club form·Deportivo Alavés form·Head-to-head record