La Liga (Spain) · Fri, Feb 20 · 20:00 · Athletic Club vs Elche
Likeliest: Athletic Club win · 56%
A tight one: we make it 56% for the home win. The market says 56%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Athletic Club56%56%0
OursMarket
Draw23%25%−2
OursMarket
Elche21%19%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 50% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 50% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 81% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 44% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 75% | −2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Athletic Club
DrawWinWinLossWin
- Feb 15 · at Real Oviedo (A)2-1
- Feb 11 · v Real Sociedad (H)0-1
- Feb 8 · v Levante (H)4-2
- Feb 4 · at Valencia (A)2-1
- Feb 1 · v Real Sociedad (H)1-1
Elche
DrawLossLossLossDraw
- Feb 13 · v Osasuna (H)0-0
- Feb 7 · at Real Sociedad (A)1-3
- Jan 31 · v FC Barcelona (H)1-3
- Jan 23 · at Levante (A)2-3
- Jan 19 · v Sevilla (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Athletic Club | Elche |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.