La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Sep 12 · 16:30 · Athletic Club vs Elche
Likeliest: Athletic Club win · 71%
A tight one: we make it 71% for the home win. The market says 68%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Athletic Club71%68%+3
OursMarket
Draw18%19%−2
OursMarket
Elche11%13%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 49% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 89% | 87% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 29% | 32% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 81% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 86% | 84% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Athletic Club
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Sep 8 · at Cuiabá (A)0-3
- Sep 5 · v Atletico Madrid (H)3-0
- Sep 4 · v Vila Nova FC (H)5-0
- Aug 30 · at Celta Vigo (A)2-0
- Aug 28 · at Náutico (A)1-2
Elche
DrawDrawLossLossLoss
- Sep 7 · v Real Sociedad (H)2-3
- Aug 28 · at Racing de Santander (A)2-3
- Aug 23 · v Barcelona (H)0-5
- Aug 17 · at Deportivo La Coruña (A)1-1
- May 23 · at Girona (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Athletic Club | Elche |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-0-6 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-5 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.