La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Mar 7 · 20:00 · Athletic Club vs FC Barcelona
Likeliest: FC Barcelona win · 43%
A 36% home win. The market says 20%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Athletic Club36%20%+16
OursMarket
Draw22%22%0
OursMarket
FC Barcelona43%58%−16
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 64% | +3 |
| Both teams score | 70% | 61% | +9 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 42% | +16 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 80% | −16 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 26% | +20 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Athletic Club
LossWinWinDrawLoss
- Mar 4 · at Real Sociedad (A)0-1
- Feb 28 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)1-1
- Feb 20 · v Elche (H)2-1
- Feb 15 · at Real Oviedo (A)2-1
- Feb 11 · v Real Sociedad (H)0-1
FC Barcelona
LossLossWinWinWin
- Mar 3 · v Atlético Madrid (H)3-0
- Feb 28 · v Villarreal (H)4-1
- Feb 22 · v Levante (H)3-0
- Feb 16 · at Girona (A)1-2
- Feb 12 · at Atlético Madrid (A)0-4
| Last 10 games | Athletic Club | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 8-0-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 7-0-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.