La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Oct 25 · 13:00 · Athletic Club vs Getafe
Likeliest: Athletic Club win · 60%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 60% for the home win. The market says 58%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Athletic Club60%58%+1
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Getafe16%18%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 41% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 44% | 42% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 82% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 42% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 77% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Athletic Club
LossLossDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 18 · at Avaí (A)0-0
- Oct 17 · at Valencia (A)0-0
- Oct 13 · v Londrina (H)2-2
- Oct 6 · at Goiás (A)1-2
- Oct 1 · v Sport Recife (H)1-2
Getafe
LossWinLossDrawDraw
- Oct 19 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)1-1
- Oct 15 · at Universitatea Craiova (A)1-1
- Oct 10 · at Barcelona (A)0-3
- Sep 20 · v Málaga (H)1-0
- Sep 17 · at Real Betis (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Athletic Club | Getafe |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-7-2 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.