La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Feb 8 · 15:15 · Athletic Club vs Levante
Likeliest: Athletic Club win · 51%
A 24% away win. The market says 17%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Athletic Club51%58%−7
OursMarket
Draw25%25%+1
OursMarket
Levante24%17%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 50% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 50% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 83% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 42% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 77% | −8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Athletic Club
WinLossLossDrawWin
- Feb 4 · at Valencia (A)2-1
- Feb 1 · v Real Sociedad (H)1-1
- Jan 28 · v Sporting CP (H)2-3
- Jan 24 · at Sevilla (A)1-2
- Jan 21 · at Atalanta (A)3-2
Levante
WinDrawLossWinDraw
- Jan 31 · v Atlético Madrid (H)0-0
- Jan 23 · v Elche (H)3-2
- Jan 17 · at Real Madrid (A)0-2
- Jan 11 · v Espanyol (H)1-1
- Jan 4 · at Sevilla (A)3-0
| Last 10 games | Athletic Club | Levante |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.