La Liga (Spain) · Tue, Apr 21 · 17:00 · Athletic Club vs Osasuna
Likeliest: Athletic Club win · 45%
A 31% away win. The market says 21%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Athletic Club45%51%−7
OursMarket
Draw25%27%−3
OursMarket
Osasuna31%21%+9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 45% | +8 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 49% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 79% | −9 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 49% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 73% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 71% | −12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Athletic Club
LossDrawLossWinLoss
- Apr 19 · at Novorizontino (A)1-2
- Apr 12 · at CRB (A)3-2
- Apr 12 · v Villarreal (H)1-2
- Apr 5 · v América Mineiro (H)1-1
- Apr 5 · at Getafe (A)0-2
Osasuna
DrawLossWinDrawDraw
- Apr 12 · v Real Betis (H)1-1
- Apr 5 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)2-2
- Mar 21 · v Girona (H)1-0
- Mar 15 · at Real Sociedad (A)1-3
- Mar 7 · v Mallorca (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Athletic Club | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.