La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Mar 22 · 17:30 · Athletic Club vs Real Betis
Likeliest: Athletic Club win · 46%
We make it 57% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 48%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Athletic Club46%62%−17
OursMarket
Draw23%27%−3
OursMarket
Real Betis31%11%+20
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 48% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 53% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 89% | −20 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 38% | +17 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 73% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 85% | −26 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Athletic Club
LossLossWinLossWin
- Mar 18 · at Sport Recife (A)3-1
- Mar 14 · at Girona (A)0-3
- Mar 11 · v Ypiranga Erechim (H)2-0
- Mar 7 · v FC Barcelona (H)0-1
- Mar 4 · at Real Sociedad (A)0-1
Real Betis
DrawLossLossDrawWin
- Mar 19 · v Panathinaikos (H)4-0
- Mar 15 · v Celta de Vigo (H)1-1
- Mar 12 · at Panathinaikos (A)0-1
- Mar 8 · at Getafe (A)0-2
- Mar 1 · v Sevilla (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Athletic Club | Real Betis |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.