La Liga (Spain) · Wed, Dec 3 · 18:00 · Athletic Club vs Real Madrid
Likeliest: Real Madrid win · 40%
A 34% home win. The market says 21%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Athletic Club34%21%+13
OursMarket
Draw26%24%+2
OursMarket
Real Madrid40%55%−15
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 45% | +15 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 79% | −13 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 76% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 28% | +19 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Athletic Club
DrawLossWinDrawWin
- Nov 29 · at Levante (A)2-0
- Nov 25 · at Slavia Praha (A)0-0
- Nov 23 · v Paysandu (H)2-1
- Nov 22 · at FC Barcelona (A)0-4
- Nov 15 · at Coritiba (A)0-0
Real Madrid
LossDrawDrawWinDraw
- Nov 30 · at Girona (A)1-1
- Nov 26 · at Olympiacos F.C. (A)4-3
- Nov 23 · at Elche (A)2-2
- Nov 9 · at Rayo Vallecano (A)0-0
- Nov 4 · at Liverpool (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Athletic Club | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.