La Liga (Spain) · Sun, Feb 1 · 20:00 · Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad
Likeliest: Athletic Club win · 43%
We make it 54% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 41%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Athletic Club43%42%+1
OursMarket
Draw26%31%−5
OursMarket
Real Sociedad32%27%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 41% | +12 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 49% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 73% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 69% | +5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 61% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Athletic Club
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Jan 28 · v Sporting CP (H)2-3
- Jan 24 · at Sevilla (A)1-2
- Jan 21 · at Atalanta (A)3-2
- Jan 17 · at Mallorca (A)2-3
- Jan 13 · at Cultural Leonesa (A)4-3
Real Sociedad
DrawWinDrawWinWin
- Jan 25 · v Celta de Vigo (H)3-1
- Jan 18 · v FC Barcelona (H)2-1
- Jan 13 · v Osasuna (H)2-2
- Jan 9 · at Getafe (A)2-1
- Jan 4 · v Atlético Madrid (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Athletic Club | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.