Copa Del Rey (Spain) · Wed, Feb 11 · 20:00 · Athletic Club vs Real Sociedad
Likeliest: Athletic Club win · 45%
We make it 58% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 45%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Athletic Club45%42%+3
OursMarket
Draw26%29%−3
OursMarket
Real Sociedad28%28%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 45% | +13 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 50% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 72% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 58% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 60% | +2 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Athletic Club
LossLossDrawWinWin
- Feb 8 · v Levante (H)4-2
- Feb 4 · at Valencia (A)2-1
- Feb 1 · v Real Sociedad (H)1-1
- Jan 28 · v Sporting CP (H)2-3
- Jan 24 · at Sevilla (A)1-2
Real Sociedad
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Feb 7 · v Elche (H)3-1
- Feb 4 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)3-2
- Feb 1 · at Athletic Club (A)1-1
- Jan 25 · v Celta de Vigo (H)3-1
- Jan 18 · v FC Barcelona (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Athletic Club | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 6-4-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 6-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.