La Liga (Spain) · Sat, Aug 22 · 15:00 · Athletic Club vs Sevilla
Likeliest: Athletic Club win · 47%
We make it 56% for both teams to score. The market says 45%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Athletic Club47%56%−9
OursMarket
Draw25%26%−1
OursMarket
Sevilla28%18%+10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 42% | +25 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 45% | +10 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 82% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 44% | +9 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 63% | 75% | −13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Athletic Club
WinDrawWinWinLoss
- Aug 20 · v CRB (H)0-2
- Aug 16 · at América Mineiro (A)3-1
- Aug 9 · v Criciúma (H)2-0
- Jul 28 · at Ponte Preta (A)1-1
- Jul 23 · v São Bernardo (H)2-1
Sevilla
WinWinLossLossWin
- Aug 15 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)2-1
- May 23 · at Celta de Vigo (A)0-1
- May 17 · v Real Madrid (H)0-1
- May 13 · at Villarreal (A)3-2
- May 9 · v Espanyol (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Athletic Club | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 5-0-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.