Serie B (Brazil) · Thu, Oct 1 · 23:30 · Athletic Club vs Sport Recife
Likeliest: Sport Recife win · 34%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 34% for the away win. The market says 34%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Athletic Club34%36%−3
OursMarket
Draw32%30%+3
OursMarket
Sport Recife34%34%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 44% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 51% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 64% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 70% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 52% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Athletic Club
DrawWinDrawDrawDraw
- Sep 27 · at Fortaleza (A)2-2
- Sep 19 · v Botafogo-SP (H)1-1
- Sep 19 · v Deportivo Alavés (H)0-0
- Sep 13 · at Juventude (A)2-0
- Sep 12 · v Elche (H)1-1
Sport Recife
LossWinLossWinLoss
- Sep 26 · at Náutico (A)1-3
- Sep 19 · v Juventude (H)2-1
- Sep 16 · at CRB (A)1-2
- Sep 11 · v Ponte Preta (H)2-0
- Sep 5 · at Ceará (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Athletic Club | Sport Recife |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 5-0-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.