La Liga (Spain) · Sun, May 10 · 14:15 · Athletic Club vs Valencia
Likeliest: Athletic Club win · 44%
A 31% away win. The market says 19%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Athletic Club44%56%−12
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
Valencia31%19%+12
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 50% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 51% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 81% | −12 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 44% | +12 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 74% | −16 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Athletic Club
LossLossWinDrawDraw
- May 9 · v Cuiabá (H)0-0
- May 4 · at Vila Nova (A)1-1
- May 2 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)4-2
- Apr 27 · v Náutico (H)0-1
- Apr 25 · at Atlético Madrid (A)2-3
Valencia
LossLossDrawWinLoss
- May 2 · v Atlético Madrid (H)0-2
- Apr 25 · v Girona (H)2-1
- Apr 21 · at Mallorca (A)1-1
- Apr 11 · at Elche (A)0-1
- Apr 5 · v Celta de Vigo (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | Athletic Club | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.