Serie B (Brazil) · Fri, Sep 4 · 23:30 · Athletic Club vs Vila Nova FC
Likeliest: Vila Nova FC win · 38%
We make it 50% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 38%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Athletic Club36%36%−1
OursMarket
Draw26%31%−4
OursMarket
Vila Nova FC38%33%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 38% | +12 |
| Both teams score | 46% | 44% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 67% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 64% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 69% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 53% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Athletic Club
LossLossLossLossWin
- Aug 30 · at Celta Vigo (A)2-0
- Aug 28 · at Náutico (A)1-2
- Aug 27 · at Barcelona (A)0-2
- Aug 24 · v Novorizontino (H)1-4
- Aug 22 · v Sevilla (H)1-3
Vila Nova FC
LossWinWinDrawWin
- Aug 30 · v Ceará (H)2-0
- Aug 23 · at Operário-PR (A)0-0
- Aug 19 · v Ponte Preta (H)6-0
- Aug 15 · at Atlético Goianiense (A)2-0
- Aug 8 · v Sport Recife (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Athletic Club | Vila Nova FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 10% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-5 | 1-1-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.