Serie A (Brazil) · Sat, Oct 17 · 22:30 · Athletico vs Palmeiras
Likeliest: Palmeiras win · 43%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 43% for the away win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Athletico27%30%−3
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Palmeiras43%41%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 47% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 52% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 57% | 59% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 70% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 39% | 42% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Athletico
LossDrawWinDrawWin
- Oct 12 · at Chapecoense (A)4-1
- Oct 8 · v Atlético Mineiro (H)2-2
- Sep 20 · v Bahia (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · at Coritiba (A)3-3
- Sep 6 · at Cruzeiro (A)1-3
Palmeiras
LossDrawWinWinWin
- Oct 15 · at Fluminense (A)2-1
- Oct 11 · v Corinthians (H)4-1
- Oct 9 · v Bahia (H)1-0
- Sep 20 · at Grêmio (A)0-0
- Sep 16 · at LDU (A)2-3
| Last 10 games | Athletico | Palmeiras |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-5-0 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.