Copa do Brasil (Brazil) · Tue, Aug 4 · 00:00 · Athletico vs Vitória
Likeliest: Athletico win · 54%
We make it 61% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 55%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Athletico54%60%−6
OursMarket
Draw25%25%+1
OursMarket
Vitória21%16%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 45% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 42% | 46% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 84% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 40% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 79% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Athletico
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Jul 30 · at Corinthians (A)0-0
- Jul 25 · v Internacional (H)2-0
- Jul 23 · at São Paulo (A)2-1
- May 30 · v Mirassol (H)1-0
- May 30 · v Mirassol (H)1-0
Vitória
LossWinDrawLossLoss
- Jul 30 · v Palmeiras (H)0-4
- Jul 26 · at Remo (A)0-2
- Jul 23 · at Botafogo (A)0-0
- Jul 16 · v Vasco da Gama (H)1-0
- May 30 · at Santos (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Athletico | Vitória |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.5 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-3-0 | 0-3-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.