Ireland 1st Division (Ireland) · Fri, Oct 2 · 18:45 · Athlone Town vs Cork City
Likeliest: Cork City win · 52%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 52% for the away win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Athlone Town22%26%−4
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Cork City52%50%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 48% | 50% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 78% | 74% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 30% | 34% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Athlone Town
WinWinDrawWinDraw
- Sep 25 · at Cobh Ramblers FC (A)0-0
- Sep 18 · v Kerry FC (H)3-0
- Sep 11 · at University College Dublin (A)2-2
- Sep 4 · at Finn Harps (A)1-0
- Aug 28 · v Bray Wanderers (H)2-1
Cork City
WinDrawLossWinLoss
- Sep 26 · at Longford Town (A)1-2
- Sep 18 · v University College Dublin (H)5-1
- Sep 11 · v Cobh Ramblers FC (H)2-3
- Sep 4 · at Bray Wanderers (A)1-1
- Aug 28 · v Wexford FC (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Athlone Town | Cork City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-0 | 4-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.