Ireland 1st Division (Ireland) · Fri, Sep 18 · 18:45 · Athlone Town vs Kerry FC
Likeliest: Athlone Town win · 40%
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Athlone Town40%43%−3
OursMarket
Draw31%28%+3
OursMarket
Kerry FC29%29%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 50% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 71% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 57% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 72% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 59% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Athlone Town
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Sep 11 · at University College Dublin (A)2-2
- Sep 4 · at Finn Harps (A)1-0
- Aug 28 · v Bray Wanderers (H)2-1
- Aug 21 · at Wexford FC (A)2-0
- Aug 7 · v Longford Town (H)2-1
Kerry FC
LossDrawWinWinLoss
- Sep 11 · v Bray Wanderers (H)0-1
- Sep 5 · at Longford Town (A)1-0
- Aug 28 · v Treaty United FC (H)3-1
- Aug 21 · v University College Dublin (H)1-1
- Aug 7 · at Cork City (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Athlone Town | Kerry FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-0 | 3-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.