Ireland 1st Division (Ireland) · Fri, Oct 9 · 18:45 · Athlone Town vs Treaty United FC
Likeliest: Athlone Town win · 63%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 63% for the home win. The market says 61%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Athlone Town63%61%+1
OursMarket
Draw22%22%0
OursMarket
Treaty United FC16%17%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 57% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 83% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 37% | 39% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 78% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Athlone Town
WinDrawWinDrawWin
- Oct 2 · v Cork City (H)2-1
- Sep 25 · at Cobh Ramblers FC (A)0-0
- Sep 18 · v Kerry FC (H)3-0
- Sep 11 · at University College Dublin (A)2-2
- Sep 4 · at Finn Harps (A)1-0
Treaty United FC
LossWinLossDrawLoss
- Oct 2 · v University College Dublin (H)0-4
- Sep 25 · v Finn Harps (H)0-0
- Sep 18 · at Bray Wanderers (A)0-2
- Sep 12 · at Longford Town (A)2-0
- Sep 4 · v Wexford FC (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Athlone Town | Treaty United FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-0 | 3-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.