Major League Soccer (USA) · Sat, Oct 17 · 23:30 · Atlanta United vs Inter Miami CF
Likeliest: Inter Miami CF win · 52%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 52% for the away win. The market says 52%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atlanta United24%26%−2
OursMarket
Draw25%22%+3
OursMarket
Inter Miami CF52%52%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 73% | −4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 70% | 71% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 49% | 48% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 78% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 32% | 33% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atlanta United
DrawWinDrawLossWin
- Oct 14 · at CF Montréal (A)3-0
- Oct 10 · v FC Cincinnati (H)1-3
- Sep 26 · v New York City FC (H)2-2
- Sep 20 · at Portland Timbers (A)1-0
- Sep 12 · at DC United (A)0-0
Inter Miami CF
DrawDrawLossWinWin
- Oct 14 · v New York City FC (H)2-0
- Oct 10 · v DC United (H)4-0
- Sep 27 · at Columbus Crew (A)1-2
- Sep 20 · v San Diego FC (H)2-2
- Sep 12 · v Nashville SC (H)2-2
| Last 10 games | Atlanta United | Inter Miami CF |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-6 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.