Primera Nacional (Argentina) · Sat, Oct 10 · 20:00 · Atlanta vs San Martín de Tucumán
Likeliest: Atlanta win · 41%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 41% for the home win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atlanta41%43%−2
OursMarket
Draw36%33%+3
OursMarket
San Martín de Tucumán23%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 29% | 31% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 39% | 38% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 64% | 67% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atlanta
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Oct 3 · at Atlético de Rafaela (A)3-2
- Sep 27 · v Agropecuario Argentino (H)1-0
- Sep 21 · at Tristán Suárez (A)0-0
- Sep 12 · v Güemes (H)2-0
- Sep 5 · at Club Atlético Chacarita Juniors (A)1-0
San Martín de Tucumán
DrawWinLossDrawWin
- Oct 3 · v Gimnasia y Tiro de Salta (H)1-0
- Sep 28 · at Gimnasia Jujuy (A)2-2
- Sep 19 · at Atlético de Rafaela (A)2-4
- Sep 13 · v Agropecuario Argentino (H)3-0
- Sep 5 · at Tristán Suárez (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Atlanta | San Martín de Tucumán |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-0-2 | 1-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.