Liga MX (Mexico) · Sat, Oct 24 · 03:00 · Atlante FC vs Atlético San Luis
Likeliest: Atlante FC win · 39%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 39% for the home win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atlante FC39%40%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Atlético San Luis34%34%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 60% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atlante FC
LossDrawDrawLossLoss
- Oct 17 · v Pumas UNAM (H)1-2
- Oct 10 · at Querétaro FC (A)0-2
- Sep 26 · v CF Monterrey (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Club Puebla (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · v CF Pachuca (H)0-3
Atlético San Luis
LossWinWinLossDraw
- Oct 18 · at CD Toluca (A)1-1
- Oct 11 · v Santos Laguna (H)1-2
- Sep 27 · at Pumas UNAM (A)3-2
- Sep 19 · v Club Necaxa (H)3-1
- Sep 15 · at Club León (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Atlante FC | Atlético San Luis |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-5-5 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.5 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-4-2 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.