Liga MX (Mexico) · Sat, Oct 17 · 03:00 · Atlante FC vs Pumas UNAM
Likeliest: Atlante FC win · 39%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 39% for the home win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atlante FC39%40%−2
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Pumas UNAM33%33%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 67% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 60% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atlante FC
DrawLossDrawDrawLoss
- Oct 10 · at Querétaro FC (A)0-2
- Sep 26 · v CF Monterrey (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Club Puebla (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · v CF Pachuca (H)0-3
- Sep 6 · at Atlas FC (A)1-1
Pumas UNAM
WinLossDrawLossDraw
- Oct 12 · v Cruz Azul (H)3-3
- Sep 27 · v Atlético San Luis (H)2-3
- Sep 19 · at Atlas FC (A)1-1
- Sep 14 · at CD Guadalajara (A)0-3
- Sep 11 · v Club León (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Atlante FC | Pumas UNAM |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-5-5 | 1-5-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.4 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-4-1 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.