Liga MX (Mexico) · Sun, Oct 11 · 01:00 · Atlas FC vs CD Guadalajara
Likeliest: CD Guadalajara win · 44%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 44% for the away win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atlas FC27%31%−3
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+2
OursMarket
CD Guadalajara44%43%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 55% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 58% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 57% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 69% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 38% | 42% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atlas FC
LossDrawLossDrawDraw
- Sep 26 · at Club Tijuana (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Pumas UNAM (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at CD Toluca (A)2-5
- Sep 6 · v Atlante FC (H)1-1
- Aug 29 · v Querétaro FC (H)1-3
CD Guadalajara
DrawWinWinDrawLoss
- Sep 26 · v Querétaro FC (H)0-2
- Sep 20 · at Club América (A)2-2
- Sep 14 · v Pumas UNAM (H)3-0
- Sep 5 · at Atlético San Luis (A)3-0
- Aug 29 · at CF Pachuca (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Atlas FC | CD Guadalajara |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-5-4 | 3-6-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.