Liga MX (Mexico) · Thu, Oct 22 · 01:00 · Atlas FC vs Club América
Likeliest: Club América win · 45%
Likely score: 0–1
We make it 49% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 44%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atlas FC26%30%−4
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Club América45%43%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 56% | −5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 57% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 74% | 70% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 37% | 41% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atlas FC
LossDrawDrawDrawWin
- Oct 17 · at Club Necaxa (A)2-0
- Oct 11 · v CD Guadalajara (H)1-1
- Sep 26 · at Club Tijuana (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Pumas UNAM (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at CD Toluca (A)2-5
Club América
LossDrawWinDrawWin
- Oct 18 · at Club León (A)5-3
- Oct 11 · v CF Monterrey (H)1-1
- Sep 28 · at Club Necaxa (A)4-2
- Sep 20 · v CD Guadalajara (H)2-2
- Sep 13 · at Cruz Azul (A)3-4
| Last 10 games | Atlas FC | Club América |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-6-3 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.