Liga MX (Mexico) · Mon, Oct 26 · 00:00 · Atlas FC vs Club Puebla
Likeliest: Atlas FC win · 53%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 53% for the home win. The market says 55%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atlas FC53%55%−2
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+2
OursMarket
Club Puebla20%19%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 51% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 51% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 81% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 47% | 45% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atlas FC
LossDrawDrawDrawWin
- Oct 17 · at Club Necaxa (A)2-0
- Oct 11 · v CD Guadalajara (H)1-1
- Sep 26 · at Club Tijuana (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Pumas UNAM (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at CD Toluca (A)2-5
Club Puebla
LossDrawLossDrawDraw
- Oct 17 · at Club Tijuana (A)0-0
- Oct 10 · v Club León (H)1-1
- Sep 27 · at Tigres UANL (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · v Atlante FC (H)1-1
- Sep 16 · v CD Toluca (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Atlas FC | Club Puebla |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-6-3 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.