Primera A (Colombia) · Sun, Oct 18 · 21:00 · Atlético Bucaramanga vs América de Cali
Likeliest: América de Cali win · 35%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 35% for the away win. The market says 35%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atlético Bucaramanga32%35%−4
OursMarket
Draw33%30%+4
OursMarket
América de Cali35%35%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 42% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 49% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 65% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 67% | 70% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 50% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atlético Bucaramanga
DrawWinDrawWinDraw
- Oct 13 · v Rionegro Águilas Doradas (H)1-1
- Oct 4 · v Junior Barranquilla (H)3-1
- Sep 26 · at Once Caldas (A)0-0
- Sep 20 · v Internacional de Bogotá (H)2-0
- Sep 17 · v Independiente Medellín (H)2-2
América de Cali
LossDrawWinWinLoss
- Oct 12 · v Independiente Medellín (H)1-2
- Oct 5 · at Llaneros FC (A)2-1
- Sep 24 · v Rionegro Águilas Doradas (H)1-0
- Sep 20 · at Deportes Tolima (A)1-1
- Sep 15 · v Deportivo Pasto (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Atlético Bucaramanga | América de Cali |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-6-0 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-6-2 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.