Primera A (Colombia) · Tue, Nov 3 · 01:15 · Atlético Bucaramanga vs Atlético Nacional
Likeliest: Atlético Nacional win · 40%
Likely scores: 1–1 13% · 1–2 9% · 0–0 9%
A tight one: we make it 40% for the away win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atlético Bucaramanga30%33%−3
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Atlético Nacional40%39%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 55% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 61% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 67% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 46% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atlético Bucaramanga
DrawDrawLossLossWin
- Oct 31 · v Deportivo Pasto (H)2-1
- Oct 27 · at Independiente Santa Fe (A)1-2
- Oct 23 · at Boyacá Chicó FC (A)0-1
- Oct 18 · v América de Cali (H)1-1
- Oct 13 · v Rionegro Águilas Doradas (H)1-1
Atlético Nacional
WinLossWinWinWin
- Oct 30 · v Independiente Santa Fe (H)2-0
- Oct 25 · v Independiente Medellín (H)2-1
- Oct 23 · v Deportivo Pasto (H)3-0
- Oct 20 · at Cúcuta Deportivo (A)0-1
- Oct 17 · at Boyacá Chicó FC (A)4-1
| Last 10 games | Atlético Bucaramanga | Atlético Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-5-2 | 5-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.