Primera A (Colombia) · Sun, Oct 4 · 23:10 · Atlético Bucaramanga vs Junior Barranquilla
Likeliest: Atlético Bucaramanga win · 46%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 46% for the home win. The market says 48%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atlético Bucaramanga46%48%−1
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Junior Barranquilla23%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 47% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 49% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 52% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atlético Bucaramanga
DrawWinDrawWinDraw
- Sep 26 · at Once Caldas (A)0-0
- Sep 20 · v Internacional de Bogotá (H)2-0
- Sep 17 · v Independiente Medellín (H)2-2
- Sep 13 · at Deportivo Pereira (A)3-1
- Aug 31 · at Deportivo Cali (A)1-1
Junior Barranquilla
DrawLossWinWinLoss
- Oct 1 · at Atlético Nacional (A)1-3
- Sep 27 · v Independiente Medellín (H)2-0
- Sep 20 · at Fortaleza CEIF (A)4-1
- Sep 13 · at Alianza Valledupar FC (A)0-1
- Sep 6 · v Jaguares de Córdoba (H)3-3
| Last 10 games | Atlético Bucaramanga | Junior Barranquilla |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-6-0 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-5-2 | 1-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.