Primera Nacional (Argentina) · Sat, Oct 17 · 20:00 · Atlético de Rafaela vs Quilmes Atlético Club
Likeliest: draw · 35%
Likely score: 1–1
A tight one: we make it 35% for the draw. The market says 32%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Atlético de Rafaela30%34%−3
OursMarket
Draw35%32%+3
OursMarket
Quilmes Atlético Club34%34%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 36% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 48% | 44% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 66% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 65% | 68% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 50% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Atlético de Rafaela
WinLossLossLossWin
- Oct 17 · v Quilmes Atlético Club (H)1-0
- Oct 10 · at Ferrocarril Midland (A)0-4
- Oct 3 · v Atlanta (H)2-3
- Sep 27 · at Gimnasia y Tiro de Salta (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · v San Martín de Tucumán (H)4-2
Quilmes Atlético Club
LossWinDrawLossLoss
- Oct 17 · at Atlético de Rafaela (A)0-1
- Oct 10 · v Agropecuario Argentino (H)0-1
- Oct 3 · at Tristán Suárez (A)0-0
- Sep 26 · v Güemes (H)2-0
- Sep 20 · at Club Atlético Chacarita Juniors (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Atlético de Rafaela | Quilmes Atlético Club |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-1 | 0-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.